TOPICS & ANALYSIS
Geopolitics • AI • Supply Chain Resilience • Stewardship
Four interconnected PILLARS — drawn from 35 years at the intersection of industry, government, and geopolitics.
GEOPOLITICAL RISK
Geopolitical Risk & Supply Chain Exposure
How shifting alliances, trade policy, and regional instability create hidden vulnerabilities in global supply chains — and how to map and mitigate them.
- Taiwan Strait & semiconductor concentration
- Nearshoring vs. friend-shoring risk
- Sanctions, export controls & compliance
- Emerging market instability
AI STRATEGY
AI Strategy for Operations Leaders
Practical frameworks for deploying AI in supply chain and operations — including model bias, provider incentives, and how to separate signal from noise.
- Model bias and provider incentives
- AI-powered demand forecasting
- Autonomous procurement risk
- AI readiness for CSCOs
SUPPLY CHAIN ARCHITECTURE
Designing for Resilience
Navigating the CHIPS Act, IRA, and the new era of strategic industrial competition — with a practitioner's lens on what the policy actually means for operations.
- CHIPS Act implementation realities
- IRA and clean energy supply chains
- Supply-Network Risks vs. Design
- Critical minerals and rare earths
PRINCIPLED STEWARDSHIP
Principled Stewardship & Resilience
Prudence and foresight in risk management; stewardship of capital, people, and supplier relationships; integrity in global sourcing (avoiding new forms of exploitation); applying the 'Golden Rule' to achieve win-win structures.
- ICR framework success-stories
- Long-term vs. transactional supplier partnerships
- Executive character under pressure
- Aligning 'resilience' to national interests
READ THE LATEST ANALYSIS
From The Resilient Steward
FILTER BY PILLAR
80%
Live on Substackof OpenAI content only shares one ideological viewpoint
AI STRATEGY
Is Your AI Really a Lobbyist?
Hidden bias in AI tools is quietly shaping supply chain and geopolitical decisions. What leaders need to understand before relying on them.
<4 min read
-$135B
Live on SubstackUS imports from China decreased $135B from 2024 to 2025
GEOPOLITICAL FORESIGHT
The US Manufacturing Ship Has Turned — But It's Still a Big Ship (Part 1)
The 2026 Kearney Reshoring Index shows real momentum: US imports from China dropped $135B while other Asian low-cost countries + Mexico gained $227B combined. "China+1" is accelerating. (Part 1 of 2)
<4 min read
$2.5T
Live on SubstackUS Manufacturing industry in 2025
BUILDING RESILIENCE
Why Tripling US Mfg Investment Hasn't Delivered Expected Capacity Growth (Part 2)
Why has tripling US manufacturing investment produced only modest capacity growth? The hard realities of factory ramp-up timelines and what senior executives must do to turn announcements into real resilience (Part 2).
<4 min read
~99%
Live on Substackof intercontinental data flows through subsea cables
GEOPOLITICAL RISK
A More Dangerous World for Business and Supply Chains (Part 1 of 2)
The tagline of The Resilient Steward — "Building Resilient Supply Chains in a More Dangerous World" — is not rhetoric. July 2026 has already delivered several stark reminders that the world is becoming more dangerous for businesses and supply chains.
<4 min read
3,000+
Live on SubstackCritical Components on a Saturn V rocket... Zero Margin for Failure
GEOPOLITICAL RISK
A More Dangerous World Demands Principled Stewardship (Part 2)
In Part 1 we saw fresh evidence that the world is becoming more dangerous for businesses and supply chains. In Part 2, we deliver actionable steps to turn your risk register into real supply chain resilience.
<4 min read
$770B
Live on Substackof Public/Private Semi investments announced since 2020
GEOPOLITICAL FORESIGHT
The $770B Semiconductor Build-Out Is Moving Upstream (Part 1 of 2)
Companies across the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem have announced $770B in investments since 2020 — funding is now flowing into the N+1 and N+2 layers. What does this mean for real resilience?
<4 min read
~11,000+
Live on SubstackUSGovt est. of total N+1 suppliers in the Semi ecosystem
SUPPLY CHAIN ARCHITECTURE
The $770B Build-Out Will Stay Fragile Without N+1 Strength (Part 2 of 2)
Recent CHIPS awards are deliberately targeting materials, wafers, and specialty equipment. True resilience still requires Tier-1s to fund and qualify the mid-tier suppliers that cannot raise CAPEX alone.
<4 min read
439%
Live on Substack"Situational Awareness" 1st Half 2026 Return (before leveraged unwind in July!)
PRINCIPLED STEWARDSHIP
When the AI Thesis Is Right but the Structure Is Fragile
A $20B+ fund bet correctly on AI — and still got liquidated. The same pattern destroys supply chains every day.
<4 min read
3-5 Days
Live on Substackof inventory on key grocery items before COVID
PRINCIPLED STEWARDSHIP
The Resilience Paradox: Why Efficiency-Optimized Chains Break First
Lean and Just-in-Time delivered decades of real operational gains — until a single shock revealed how little buffer remained.
<4 min read
88%
Live on Substackof AI pilots never reach production
AI STRATEGY
The Same Three Failures That Sank ERP Can Sink Your AI Agents (Part 1 of 2)
AI can accelerate core processes — but the same structural failures that sank ERP implementations for 3 decades still apply.
<4 min read
$500MM
LIVE ON SUBSTACKOne company's single monthly AI bill with no usage caps
AI STRATEGY
The Same Three Failures That Sank ERP Can Sink Your AI Agents (Part 2)
AI accelerates the work — it does not remove the need for clean data, phased rollout, or dedicated ownership.
<4 min read
17%
LIVE ON SUBSTACKAverage cost increase CEOs say they would accept for greater supply-chain resilience
PRINCIPLED STEWARDSHIP
In a More Dangerous World, Short-Term Thinking Is the Real Supply Chain Risk.
Leaders say they will pay for resilience. Short-term targets often prevent them from doing so.
<4 min read
<9 months
LIVE ON SUBSTACKTime to scale production faster than any competitor after the contraction.
PRINCIPLED STEWARDSHIP
In a More Dangerous World, Quarterly Goals and Resilience Can Coexist (Part 2).
A Strategic Upgrade to People, Processes, Suppliers, and Technology made both possible at the same time.
<4 min read
92%
LIVE ON SUBSTACKof the World's Most Advanced Chips Still Come From One Place
GEOPOLITICAL RISK
Why Typical Second-Sourcing — or Reshoring — Does Not Work at the Leading Edge (Part 1 of 2).
Dual-source playbooks work for commodities. They do not work when only an elite three companies can make the node — and one island still makes ~92% of it.
<4 min read
5–8 years
LIVE ON SUBSTACKTypical length of multi-year GPU / AI-factory capacity contracts
AI SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE
Stop Treating Every AI Workload as a Leading-Edge Problem (Part 2)
Most compute does not need the newest node. Aerospace learned that lesson decades ago with Power-by-the-Hour.
<4 min read
12-20 weeks
LIVE ON SUBSTACKTypical Engineered joist / girder lead time after approved drawings, longer on specials
CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE
The Schedule Is Won Before Construction Starts
In a volatile steel market, owners who integrate supply chain, engineering, and planning during pre-construction buy certainty. Everyone else buys delay.
<4 min read
0.5% (αs)
LIVE ON SUBSTACKHow little the strong nuclear interaction (αs) can shift before element production in stars collapses.
THE SCIENCE MOMENT NO.1
The Universe Was Not Built With Infinite Safety Stock
New monthly feature — The Science Moment. First piece: The Universe Was Not Built With Infinite Safety Stock. I highly recommend the documentary The Story of Everything for science enthusiasts or watch it with your kids on Amazon Prime.
<4 min read
>10% vs. 88%
LIVE ON SUBSTACKClaimed AI extinction odds vs. share of AI pilots that never reach production.
AI STRATEGY
The AI Doomer Debate Is Not Creating Resilience (Part 1 of 2)
Extinction odds and "it's a hoax" are both loud, but neither one hardens a supply chain.
<4 min read
3 buckets
LIVE ON SUBSTACKMust-have leading-edge / can run on N-1 GPUs or open models / should never have been frontier
AI STRATEGY
The AI Doomer Debate Is Not a Resilience Plan (Part 2)
A pause is not prudence. "Full speed" is not a strategy. Here is the operating checklist.
<4 min read
$9.1T
LIVE ON SUBSTACKU.S. infrastructure need over 10 years — $3.7T of it still unfunded (ASCE 2025)
GEOPOLITICAL RISK
The $9.1T Infrastructure Invoice Is a Supply-Chain Problem (Part 1 of 2)
Appropriating the money is not the same as getting permits, qualifying the pumps, and contracting the offtake.
<4 min read
4 pillars
LIVE ON SUBSTACKSupply-chain design · Geopolitical foresight · AI · Principled stewardship
GEOPOLITICAL FORESIGHT
The $9.1T Infrastructure Invoice Still Has a Supply-Chain Problem (Part 2)
The money is not the hardest part of infrastructure projects. Sequence, consent, suppliers, and offtake are.
<4 min read
4 layers
LIVE ON SUBSTACKControls · Internal Team · External Auditor · Board Committee
AI STRATEGY
AI Rivals Signed the Same Page. That Is the Resilience Move.
The White-House Super Intelligence Accord is voluntary. The fact that competitors co-signed it is not.
<4 min read
5 designs
LIVE ON SUBSTACKProcess · Discrete Manufacturing · EPC · Software / AI · Banking/services
SUPPLY CHAIN DESIGN
Supply Chain Design Is an Engineering Problem (Part 1 of 5)
The org chart, the suppliers, and the assets have to be designed against the product roadmap — not after it.
<4 min read
6 groups
LIVE ON SUBSTACKCommodity · P2P · SIOP · Logistics · Supplier quality · Data
SUPPLY CHAIN DESIGN
Supply Chain Design Starts With Where the CSCO Sits (Part 2 of 5)
The six groups are the design. The boss and the headcount follow the industry.
<4 min read
5 phases
MOST RECENT POST0 Analyze · 1 Identify · 2 Select · 3 Improve · 4 Integrate
SUPPLY CHAIN DESIGN
Supply Chain Design Needs a Framework, Not a Hero (Part 3 of 5)
A process that lives in one person's head is not a process. A framework makes it repeatable, controllable, and transferable.
<4 min read